Will the election affect Denver’s housing market in 2020? Expert weighs in

by | Dec 17, 2019 | Blog, Denver Real Estate Market, Mortgage & Finance, Real Estate

The confetti has been thrown, the champagne glasses emptied. As we leave 2019 behind, it’s time to look ahead. What will 2020 bring?

When it comes to our Denver real estate market, we turned for predictions to a specialist we trust: Megan Aller, Denver real estate statistician and account executive for First American Title.

In a paper titled “2020 Strategy with 2020 Vision” Aller first offers background on where the market stands, noting that inventory remains low. Market equilibrium, she notes, requires a six-month supply of inventory “or approximately six homes per buyer.” Currently, there’s an average of two or fewer available listings per buyer.

Nonetheless, at 2019’s end, time spent on the market was rising, price appreciation was slowing, and price reductions were increasing.

“[T]he reality is none of these factors are expected to shift” in the new year, says Aller. Buyers and sellers will each find favorable conditions, depending on the time of year.

Aller also predicts that:

  • “Slowing appreciation due to affordability issues is likely to continue, and overpricing will cause issues.” Homes with selling obstacles, “such as awkward floor plans or locations in high traffic areas,” will face particular challenges as new construction offers buyers more options.
  • The presidential election will have little impact on much of the real estate market. “While our focus and energy shift to the noise of a presidential election year, market data shows it has little influence on the current path of the real estate market,” Aller notes.
  • The election may, however, affect higher-end markets ($700,000 and above). These are influenced by the stock market, which can be more volatile in presidential election years. Aller advises sellers to list their homes in February or March, rather than the typically advantageous month of April, to avoid the risk of “a noisy stock market” as the election approaches.
  • Sellers in general will face optimum conditions in March-May; buyers in July-October.

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